DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS One problem that is shared by those who prepare a TPF and those who must execute its recommendations is the di...
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS One problem that is shared by those who prepare a TPF and those who must execute its recommendations is the difficulty in obtaining comprehensive, reliable and timely economic data. In a perfect world, the public and private sectors would have easy access to a wealth of information on trade and investment in both goods and services, as well as extensive figures on national production, employment, and consumption in a wide range of sectors. In the course of writing a TPF, researchers may find their queries stalled on several of these points. Some types of data may be unavailable, while others are dated, incomplete or simply wrong. The assessment report on Botswana, for example, found very significant deviations between the declared values of imports into Botswana and the corresponding value data for exports from the partner countries, as well as similar discrepancies for Botswana’s exports that the partners imports. These shortcomings present both a short-term and a long-term problem. The researcher must often reach defensible conclusions on the basis of incomplete data, while also proposing ways that the country’s collection, analysis and dissemination of data might be improved in the future. By 2020, enhance capacity-building support to developing countries, including for least developed countries and small island developing States, to increase significantly the availability of high-quality,
timely and reliable data disaggregated by income, gender, age, race, ethnicity, migratory status, disability, geographic location and other characteristics relevant in national contexts. By 2030, build on existing initiatives to develop measurements of progress on sustainable development that complement gross domestic product, and support statistical capacity-building in developing countries. Two of the 19 targets under Sustainable Development Goal 17: Revitalize the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development PARTNERSHIPS FOR THE GOALS In the short term, the TPF researchers need to collect all available data but must also be selective in its use. It is important to resist the temptation to treat a TPF, or at least its introductory sections, as a data dump into which all manner of raw facts and figures can be stuffed. What most matters in a TPF is not the bulk of data but the quality of analysis, and the writers should focus their attention on those statistics and other information that are most relevant to their argument. It may be appropriate to provide statistical appendices, but the body of the document should present only that information that helps the readers to understand the argument being presented. It is also important for researchers to verify the information that they collect. Their task can often be facilitated by drawing upon previous analyses, such as (for example) a recent trade policy review of the country, but in so doing they should use only the most recent information. If that TPR presents information that was collected from some national or international source, it is important for the researchers to find out whether that same source has since been updated. The longer-term goal is to enhance the capacity of policymakers to find and properly utilize data in real time. The effectiveness of a trade ministry is determined to a considerable degree by its capacity to manage 70 TRADE POLICY FRAMEWORKS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A MANUAL OF BEST PRACTICES the flow of numbers, words and ideas. The information and communications with which it must deal come in a wide variety of forms: economic data on actual trade and the barriers (tariff and non-tariff) imposed by the country and its partners; legal understanding of the existing treaties, laws, and regulations; knowledge of the positions taken by other government ministries, as well by the many components of civil society (principally business, labour, agriculture and nongovernmental organizations); the views of like-minded countries with which the country may engage in coalition diplomacy; and political intelligence on the interests, objectives, and influence of the key parties in the partner country. A well-run trade ministry devotes much of its resources to gathering, processing and exploiting each of these types of information. In other words, it must be prepared to calculate the data, consult at home and coordinate with partners. Issues such as intellectual property rights and investment also pose difficult problems for analysts. Once again there are shortcomings in the availability and reliability of data, as well as greater legal complexities. These are areas where a country may do well to rely upon the analytical and technical assistance made available by international organizations and developments banks. Provided that one takes into account their potential biases and agendas, it can also be helpful to receive assistance from think tanks and non-governmental organizations. Researchers should take the fullest advantage of all sources of trade, investment, and other economic data, utilizing (among others) the sources listed in box 10. For comparative purposes, it may also be useful to show where the country fits relative to its neighbours and other peers in various trade-related indices. This most prominently includes the Doing Business data of the World Bank, but also includes a great many other sources that provide rankings of countries on various measures. These include the following: • Index of economic freedom (Heritage Foundation/ Wall Street Journal) • Foreign direct investment regulatory restrictiveness index (OECD). • Corruption perception index (Transparency International). • Human development index (United Nations Development Programme). • Services trade restrictiveness index (World Bank). • Logistics performance index (World Bank) There are steps that a TPF can recommend in order to assist a country in its capacity to collect, analyse, and disseminate data. The Rwanda TPF, for example, observed that an Industrial Observatory Unit had been set up in that country by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), but, for example, and does so in large part through the computable general equilibrium trade model of the Global Trade Analysis Project. The TPF for Jamaica relies heavily upon an analysis of the country’s revealed comparative advantage in specific sectors and goods in order to identify priority areas for further development.
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